CINAC: Correlation is not a Cause

CINAC: Correlation is not a Cause

Sue Blackmore on the one thing everyone should have in their cognitive toolkit that they don’t currently…..CINAC (Correlation is not a Cause).

One reason for this lack is that CINAC can be surprisingly difficult to grasp. I learned just how difficult when teaching experimental design to nurses, physiotherapists and other assorted groups. They usually understood my favourite example: imagine you are watching at a railway station. More and more people arrive until the platform is crowded, and then — hey presto — along comes a train. Did the people cause the train to arrive (A causes B)? Did the train cause the people to arrive (B causes A)? No, they both depended on a railway timetable (C caused both A and B).

And…

The point is that once you greet any new correlation with “CINAC” your imagination is let loose. Once you listen to every new science story Cinacally (which conveniently sounds like “cynically”) you find yourself thinking: OK, if A doesn’t cause B, could B cause A? Could something else cause them both or could they both be the same thing even though they don’t appear to be? What’s going on? Can I imagine other possibilities? Could I test them? Could I find out which is true? Then you can be critical of the science stories you hear. Then you are thinking like a scientist.

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