Taking a half-day, and then doing some GOTV. Because of anticipated parking problems a lot of the polling places have been shifted since 2006 (and even since the primary), so there’s a real need to get people that information.

Aside from the polling, which indicates a likely Obama victory in NH, I’d be very surprised if Obama lost here — NH voted Kerry in 2004, there was a blue wave here in 2006, and things have only gotten worse for the GOP since. The one sticking point? In 2004/2006 the Iraq withdrawal issue was made clearer. People here are sick of the war, and want it over, tonight if possible. In 2006 there was a very clear distinction — the Democrats are for getting out, the Repubs for staying in. But because of filibuster and presidential action that difference has become muted (which was the intent of those actions).

I don’t think it’s enough though, and I predict a win stronger than Kerry/Bush here.

One of the under-covered elements I’m seeing lately is that after 20 years of New Hampshire independents saying they support divided government (different parties in control of the the different branches) and complaining about gridlock people have finally realized they have been smoking crack. Divided government equals gridlock. Obama is talking about reaching across the aisle, but the independents in New Hampshire at least are taking it one step further — they are going to give a one-party progressive government a go. [Partially this is interesting because we saw what a one-party conservative government did — it got stuff done. All really horrible stuff, but stuff.]

If anybody wants the skinny on what’s happening here, go to Blue Hampshire. It’s a great look at what’s going on on the ground. It may be a lottle spotty today, because so many posters are out on GOTV, but it will still be worth the read.