For the stats text, I’ve been trying to think of/find rules that apply across a wide array of disciplines. Here’s one: control for cyclical effects. It applies here (summer gas spikes): And here, with voting in elections — presidential elections (a cyclical event) boosts turnout every second congressional election):  2008:  a bit over 340,000 come… Continue reading

Gas prices are up again. What’s going on? Who’s to blame? Of course big long term driver is China. China needs more gas, and its exploding demand has put pressure on the market. But what about the recent spike? Apparently the big villian is… Chemistry: Gas prices fluctuate seasonally — up in spring, down in… Continue reading

Decent graph from NYT showing quintiles over time, in this case, the declining portion of government benefits the poorest 20% of the population receives. These sorts of graphs are very in right now, as the format is perfect for showing change of distribution over time, and so much of our political discourse is dealing with… Continue reading

Making some progress on the Making Fair Comparisons textbook. The preface is below. One thing I’ve learned from reading cheesy self-help books: If you believe a skill will change a person’s life, you should say it. At the end of the book, the reader will know if their life is changed or not. There’s time to be… Continue reading

I’m writing a intro stats book right now (a small one for students). This lecture really brings home the problem of the “garden path” solution, and how small changes in presentation could make a big difference. Continue reading

Everyone knows that campaign spending is out of control, right? Except it’s not. In raw numbers, of course, the amount just keeps getting bigger, but controlled for inflation, it’s exactly what you would expect, and no more expensive than it was at the turn of the century, as the graph above from Mother Jones shows.… Continue reading

In a Moneybox post I mostly agree with, Matt Yglesias says this: In order to do well in courses on 19th Century British Literature or Social Anthropology or Philosophy or American History in a properly running American college, what you need to do is get pretty good at reading and writing documents in the English… Continue reading

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